PLYWOOD EXPORTATION FROM TAIWAN: QUARTERLY VARIATION AND FORECASTING

Abstract

The quarterly figures of plywood exported from Taiwan during the period of 1965-88 were studied. Differences between the current and the next quarters were positive from the first to the second quarter but were negative from the fourth quarter to the next first quarter. The seasonal fluctuations may be linked to the United States residential construction as a whole. Correlations among quarters were high, the closer the two quarters in time, the higher was the correlation. Regression model for the next quarter export was successful in all quarters. Further study on the monthly variation pattern and the factors governing such variation may be desirable.