MODELLING SPATIO-TEMPORAL CHANGES OF TROPICAL FOREST COVER IN THE NORTH-EASTERN REGION OF BANGLADESH: CONTEXT OF TRADITIONAL AND CO-MANAGEMENT PARADIGMS

Abstract

Forests in Bangladesh are losing their land footprint mainly due to anthropogenic onslaught. Not much is known about the changes in tropical forest cover in Sylhet Forest Division (SFD) of Bangladesh in the backdrop of mixed managerial paradigms (i.e. traditionally managed and co-managed). This study was aimed at (1) modelling changes in forest cover over the temporal domain 1988–2018, (2) projecting future gain/loss of forest cover, and (3) comparing changes between areas under co-management and traditional management. The study was based on satellite image pixel classification through machine learning, area interpolation, regression-based modelling for forest cover and future projections. SFD, comprising 18 forests, has been grouped into 10 forest patches for analysis. Mean forest cover area was 121,533 ha in 1988–1997, which declined to 120,216 ha in 1998–2007. Comparison between the area values of the two time intervals showed that the forest cover area has increased from 120,216 ha in 1998–2007 to 124,556 ha in 2007–2018. In the managerial perspective, the study showed aggregated loss in patches under co-management and aggregated gain in patches under traditional forest management. This study has legislative implications from managerial perspective of forest cover changes.